Zelensky Likely to Take Trump’s Mineral Deal

Polymarket bettors predict a 67 percent chance Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will accept Trump’s mineral deal despite a rocky White House summit. The offer ties U.S. aid to Kyiv granting mining rights for rare earths critical to tech and defense industries. Odds rose after Zelensky called the spat regrettable hinting at a thaw to secure American backing.

The deal emerged from Trump’s push to leverage Ukraine’s vast mineral wealth estimated at 500 billion dollars in exchange for sustained war support. Their Oval Office clash saw Trump demand gratitude while Zelensky sought firm commitments not trade-offs. Polymarket’s crowd now bets pragmatism will win out as Kyiv faces Russia’s grinding advance.

Ukraine holds some of Europe’s largest deposits of lithium and titanium fueling Trump’s interest in a pact over open-ended charity. Zelensky initially bristled at the quid pro quo fearing it weakens his nation’s sovereignty amid war. Bettors see his recent conciliatory tone as a sign he will bend to keep U.S. weapons flowing critical to survival.

Polymarket a blockchain-based prediction platform has tracked this saga since January with odds shifting from 50 percent post-meeting. Its users often nail political outcomes like U.S. elections suggesting real insight into Zelensky’s next play. Trump’s team views the deal as a win-win cutting aid costs while boosting American industry over China’s dominance.

Zelensky faces brutal math with Russia outgunning Ukraine 3-to-1 in artillery and winter looming over battered troops. Rejecting Trump risks losing billions in gear though accepting could spark domestic backlash for selling out resources. Polymarket’s 67 percent tilt reflects bets he will swallow pride to fight another day against Putin.

Trump’s America First lens sees Ukraine as a partner not a charity case pushing this deal since his swearing-in. Advisors say he wants a legacy of shrewd trades not blank checks unlike Biden’s approach. Zelensky’s regret over their dust-up signals he grasps the stakes of alienating a GOP-led Washington now calling shots.

Critics warn the deal could lock Ukraine into long-term U.S. reliance while Russia eyes the same mineral prize in occupied zones. Supporters argue it is better than no aid at all with Kyiv’s army stretched thin after 3 years of war. Polymarket’s rising odds hint Zelensky agrees even if it stings to concede under pressure.

If the bet holds Trump could tout a foreign policy coup by summer securing minerals and a Ukraine lifeline in one swoop. Zelensky would gain breathing room to regroup though at a cost to national pride and future leverage. For now the market leans toward a handshake proving war’s grim realities often trump ideals in diplomacy.