Trump and Musk to Cut 307000 Government Jobs

Prediction market Kalshi forecasts that President Donald Trump and Elon Musk heading the Department of Government Efficiency will slash 307000 federal jobs in 2025 a bold move to shrink bureaucracy. This projection aligns with Trump’s campaign vow to gut wasteful spending and boost accountability. Musk’s DOGE unveiled in January aims to streamline agencies with layoffs starting as early as March. The plan has ignited fierce debate over efficiency versus job losses as Trump’s second term kicks off with a strong mandate.

Kalshi’s 99 percent odds of Trump’s win in November 2024 reflect confidence in his agenda now extending to this jobs cull. DOGE targets agencies like USAID criticized for losing track of 8 billion dollars in aid under Biden. Musk speaking from the Oval Office in January called federal bureaucracy an unelected fourth branch needing common-sense controls. With Trump’s 53 percent approval at inauguration per Harvard Harris polls the duo has public backing to wield the axe though critics warn of chaos.

The cuts focus on redundancy and inefficiency. Trump signed an executive order in January forcing agencies to comply with DOGE or face defunding. Of the 307000 positions 600 from State Department Security Services will aid deportation efforts a nod to 71 percent of voters favoring removal of criminal illegal aliens. Musk’s transparency pledge includes public audits though his billions in federal contracts spark conflict-of-interest murmurs. Biden’s tenure saw 2.1 million federal workers a number Trump aims to trim by 15 percent.

Opposition mounts from Democrats. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer faces a DOJ probe over comments deemed threatening to Trump and Musk a sign of rising tensions. Unions representing 1.5 million federal employees plan lawsuits arguing the cuts violate civil service protections. Yet 56 percent of voters see Trump as unifying per recent polls suggesting appetite for leaner government. Biden added 50000 workers in four years a growth Musk calls parasitic compared to Trump’s first-term freeze.

Economic ripples loom large. The 307000 jobs span clerical to mid-level roles with an average salary of 75000 dollars totaling 23 billion dollars in payroll. DOGE claims reinvesting this into tax cuts or infrastructure beats Biden’s spending spree where 60 percent of voters wanted major changes. Musk’s Fort Knox quip about auditing gold reserves hints at broader fiscal shakeups. Critics say slashing jobs risks service breakdowns like the 2021 vaccine rollout lags under Biden’s overstuffed agencies.

Musk’s role amplifies the stakes. Leading DOGE unelected he’s drawn fire for wielding outsized power though 52 percent trust Trump on the economy over Harris’s 45 percent per Pew. Kalshi’s prediction hinges on Congress certifying cuts by July a tight timeline given GOP’s slim House edge. Trump’s first term shed 10000 jobs via attrition a pace Musk aims to triple. Biden’s 39 percent exit rating fuels the narrative that bloated government failed a view DOGE exploits.

Supporters cheer a leaner future. With 66 percent of Trump backers saying government lacks control over illegal immigration per Pew the cuts pair with border security wins. Musk’s Tesla laid off 14000 workers in 2024 proving he can slash ruthlessly. Detractors fear a hollowed-out state as 15 percent of federal workers brace for pink slips. Kalshi’s 307000 figure may shift but signals DOGE’s intent to remake Washington in Trump’s image fast.

The road ahead tests Trump’s mandate. His 279 electoral votes and 5 million popular vote edge over Harris empower bold plays like this. Musk’s DOGE faces legal hurdles with states seeking injunctions already rebuffed by one judge. If executed the 307000 cuts would mark the deepest in decades outstripping Reagan’s 1980s trims. As Biden’s legacy fades under 58 percent disapproval Trump and Musk bet this purge restores trust in a government voters long deemed too fat.