Recession Odds Drop to 36% as Trump Secures Trade Deals

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Full Story

The odds of a U.S. recession have fallen to 36% on Polymarket, down from 66% two weeks ago, as President Trump advances trade deals and inflation cools. Barclays now predicts 0.5% economic growth this year, reversing its earlier recession forecast. This signals rising confidence in the economy.

Polymarket, a prediction platform, reflects real-time economic sentiment. The sharp drop in recession odds suggests growing optimism.

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The Context

Trump’s trade deals aim to boost U.S. exports and job creation. Such agreements often strengthen economic stability and growth.

Inflation, a key economic concern, has shown signs of cooling. Lower inflation supports consumer spending and business investment.

Barclays, a major bank, revised its 2025 growth forecast upward. It now expects the U.S. to avoid a recession entirely.

The U.S. economy has faced recession fears due to past inflation spikes. Trump’s policies focus on deregulation and trade to spur growth.

The shift in forecasts aligns with Trump’s second-term economic agenda. His administration prioritizes domestic industry and energy independence.

Some credit Trump’s deals for stabilizing the economy and jobs. Others worry trade policies could raise costs or spark global tensions.