Buttigieg Edges Rogers in Tight Michigan Senate Race Poll

A new MIRS poll shows Pete Buttigieg leading Mike Rogers 46 percent to 44 percent in a hypothetical Michigan Senate matchup. The razor-thin margin highlights a competitive race as the state gears up for 2026 midterms. Both men bring national profiles to a contest that could tip the Senates balance of power.

Buttigieg Trumps Transportation Secretary has eyed a Senate run since leaving the cabinet in January. His 2020 presidential bid and infrastructure wins give him name recognition among Michigan voters. The poll of 800 likely voters marks his first test against Rogers a GOP stalwart and ex-House member.

Rogers served Michigan in Congress from 2001 to 2015 chairing the Intelligence Committee. He touts his security credentials and Trump ties to rally conservatives in a state that flipped red in 2016. Yet his long absence from office leaves some voters cold per the surveys 3 percent margin of error.

Michigan has trended Democratic in recent cycles with Senator Debbie Stabenow holding her seat since 2000. She plans to retire in 2026 opening a rare chance for new blood in a polarized electorate. Buttigiegs edge stems from urban strongholds like Detroit while Rogers banks on rural turnout.

The poll reflects unease over Trumps agenda with 51 percent of Michiganders disapproving of his tariff plans. Buttigieg hammers economic fairness and green jobs appealing to union workers. Rogers counters with a law-and-order pitch vowing to tackle illegal immigration and crime.

Analysts see this as a preview of a bruising primary and general election fight ahead. Buttigiegs LGBT identity energizes progressives but risks backlash in conservative pockets. Rogers must unify a GOP base split by Trumps polarizing return to power.

Democrats hold a 51-49 Senate edge making Michigan a must-win to keep control. The states 15 electoral votes also loom large after tight presidential races in 2016 and 2020. Both camps eye fundraising hauls with Buttigieg already tapping his national donor network.

This early snapshot sets the stage for a clash of titans in a swing-state showdown. Voter fatigue and economic winds will shape the outcome as 2026 nears. For now Buttigieg holds a slim lead in a race too close to call with certainty.