The first quarter of 2022 has passed, and it was found that the GDP of the American economy decreased by 1.4 percent. This GDP contraction has led many to wonder if there is a recession on the horizon. That’s why we’re going over the top recession statistics you need to know in 2022.
There is much uncertainty with the Federal Reserve raising interest rates for the first time in almost four years. Pair that with record-high inflation and you begin to understand why so many Americans are worried about a future recession.
To gain a better understanding of what a recession is and how it may affect you, check out these six recession statistics.
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Top 6 Recession Statistics in 2022
Here is a list of the top 6 most important recession statistics in 2022.
1. 6% Chance of a Recession Happening Soon
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
You may be wondering what the chances of a recession occurring are. In 2022, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York estimates a 6% chance of a recession happening.
They came to this conclusion by using the slope of the yield curve to calculate the chances of a recession occurring in the next 12 months.
The yield curve is also sometimes referred to as the term spread. In this scenario, they take the difference between the 10-year and 3-month Treasury rates for the approximate value of 6%.
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2. 81% of American Adults Think a Recession Will Happen in 2022
Source: CNBC
The vast majority of Americans think a recession will happen this year. In fact, 81% of United States adults anticipate a recession in 2022.
Having this belief is completely justified. Rising interest rates and inflation has made many uncertain about whether or not there will be an economic downturn.
This isn’t a political topic either. According to a CNBC survey, the majority of Independents, Republicans, and Democrats are concerned about a future recession.
Financial stress also played a role in the results of the survey. Those who were under more financial stress were more likely to respond that they were worried about a recession in the future.
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Though, it is worth mentioning that the United States economy is doing somewhat decent when you look at the labor market.
In total, the current unemployment rate in the U.S. is 3.6% as of March 2022.
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3. The Current Annual Inflation Rate in the United States is 8.5%
Source: US Inflation Calculator
In 2022, the current annual U.S. inflation rate is 8.5%. For reference, in 2012, the annual inflation rate was 1.7%. In 2013, it decreased to 1.5% and even went as low as 0.7% in 2015.
This then jumped up to 2.1% in 2016 and stayed relatively stable until 2021 when it jumped to 7%. So far in 2022, inflation has risen by 1.5% compared to its peak last year.
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4. 33 Recessions Have Happened in the United States Since 1854
Source: The Balance
Since 1854, a total of 33 recessions have occurred in the United States. Of course, the length and severity of each vary.
Regardless, each recession disrupted the U.S. economy and often resulted in a spike in unemployment rates. It was also common to see GDP drop with each occurrence.
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5. The Shortest Recession in U.S. History Was in 2020
Source: Reuters
The shortest recession in U.S. history was the recession in 2020. It lasted a total of two months and rebounded by May of 2020.
Approximately 22 million jobs vanished during this two-month recession. Millions lost their jobs between March and April of 2020.
6. The Great Recession Was The Longest Lasting Recession Since The Great Depression
Source: Britannica
The longest recession on record since the Great Depression was the Great Recession. It began in the later part of 2007 and continued until the middle of 2009.
This recession affected not only the United States, but also countries such as Mexico, Hungary, and Greece.
Summary
What are your thoughts on these recession statistics? Did you find any of them particularly interesting or informative in any way?
A potential recession is causing many to worry. But no one knows for certain if or when a recession will happen in 2022.
Yes, inflation is on the rise and the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates. However, the unemployment rate is decreasing gradually, indicating many are returning to work.
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