Christian Democratic Union Leads in German Election

Germany’s federal election delivered a strong performance for the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian ally, the Christian Social Union (CSU), according to exit polls released Sunday night. The CDU/CSU bloc, led by Friedrich Merz, is poised to reclaim power after years in opposition, signaling a shift in the nation’s political direction. Voters turned out in significant numbers, driven by concerns over a stagnating economy and immigration, with early results suggesting a rejection of the current government’s approach.

The CDU/CSU secured around 29 percent of the vote—per projections from ARD (28.6%) and ZDF (28.5–29%)—comfortably ahead of the ruling Social Democrats (SPD), who slumped to a historic low of roughly 16 percent. Merz, a businessman-turned-politician who returned to the spotlight in recent years, campaigned on revitalizing the economy and tightening migration policies, striking a chord with Germans frustrated by rising costs and border security. The result marks a comeback for the CDU following Angela Merkel’s exit in 2021.

The SPD, led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, faltered amid public discontent over inflation, energy woes, and a fractured coalition with the Greens and Free Democrats (FDP). The Greens held steady at about 12–13 percent, a dip from 2021, while the FDP hovered near the 5 percent threshold needed to stay in parliament. Analysts point to voter fatigue with the coalition’s progressive policies and a craving for pragmatic leadership as key factors in the CDU/CSU’s resurgence.

Immigration dominated the campaign, with Merz promising stricter border controls and asylum reforms in response to public anger over recent migrant-linked crimes. While critics warn of echoes of far-right rhetoric, supporters argue he’s addressing widespread concerns. The CDU/CSU also pitched economic recovery and stability, drawing backing from business and conservative circles, though the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) surged to around 20 percent, nearly doubling its previous share and complicating the political landscape.

If the polls hold, Merz will need coalition partners—likely the Greens or FDP—to govern, with talks potentially lasting weeks or months. A CDU-led government could nudge Germany rightward, testing ties with EU partners like France who favor deeper integration, and reflecting a broader European tilt toward center-right leadership. The AfD’s gains, while notable, leave it isolated as mainstream parties refuse to cooperate with it.

Germans expressed a mix of hope and unease as results emerged. A Berlin voter hailed the focus on economic renewal, while another fretted over social spending cuts. Turnout was reportedly high, underscoring the election’s weight after years of global and domestic challenges. Scholz acknowledged the SPD’s defeat, pledging to rebuild for future battles.

Globally, the outcome is under scrutiny. A CDU-led Germany might bolster NATO commitments and toughen its stance on Russia amid ongoing tensions. U.S. officials welcomed Merz’s lead, eyeing stronger transatlantic ties. At home, the CDU/CSU faces pressure to deliver fast, with the AfD waiting to capitalize on any missteps.

This election marks a pivot for Germany as it navigates a post-Merkel era of economic and geopolitical strain. Merz’s leadership will test the CDU/CSU’s ability to bridge divides and restore confidence. For now, the bloc celebrates its edge, but the real challenge—governing a restless nation—looms large.